As temperatures rise and storms grow stronger， climate change is no longer just an environmental issue—it’s a material financial risk. Wall Street， central banks， and insurers are rewriting their risk playbooks to keep up with a warming world.

随着气温升高、风暴越发强烈，气候变化不再仅是一个环境问题——而是一个重大金融风险。华尔街、各国央行和保险公司正在重新制定各自的风险应对策略，以紧跟全球变暖的趋势。

A decade ago， most CFOs wouldn’t have thought to include sea-level rise or wildfire frequency in their risk matrices. Now， they can’t afford not to.

十年前，大多数首席财务官不会想到把海平面上升或野火发生频率纳入风险评估框架。如今，他们无法承担忽视这些风险的代价。

Climate change has made its way into boardrooms， regulatory memos， and even central bank simulations. Not as an afterthought or a PR-friendly CSR initiative—but as a core threat to financial stability.

气候变化已经进入了董事会层面、监管备忘录甚至中央银行的模拟测试。这不再是事后补充计划或对公关有利的企业社会责任举措，而是威胁金融稳定的核心风险。

According to a 2023 study by the Network for Greening the Financial System （NGFS）， 38 central banks across five continents have begun integrating climate scenarios into their supervisory frameworks. Stress testing， traditionally reserved for economic shocks， pandemics， or liquidity crises， now includes carbon pricing， drought projections， and transition risks.

根据“绿色金融网络系统”2023年的研究，五大洲有38家中央银行开始将气候情景纳入其监管框架。传统上用于应对经济冲击、疫情或流动性危机的压力测试，如今也涵盖了碳定价、干旱预测和转型风险。

The Federal Reserve， for its part， has been more cautious but not inactive. In 2023， it launched its first-ever pilot climate scenario analysis involving six major U.S. banks. The focus wasn’t to penalize or regulate， but to understand： What would happen to banks’ balance sheets under different climate futures？

就美联储而言，态度更为谨慎，但并非无所作为。2023年，美联储启动了首个气候情景分析试点项目，涉及六家美国大型银行。重点并非惩罚或监管，而是要弄清楚：在不同的气候前景下，银行业的资产负债表会发生什么变化？

The data is sobering. A 2022 IMF working paper estimated that the value at risk （VaR） from climate-related financial instability could reach up to 10% of global GDP by 2100 under a high-emission scenario. And while 2100 feels far away， capital markets discount future risk today.

相关数据令人警醒。